2012-09-26

Investing in wine - for dummies

I am not a wine expert, but I know a thing or two about investing. I'll try to give my 2 cents worth of advice when it comes to investing in fine wine as a financial investment, not an investment in future drinking.

The basics of investing in wine is like all other investments, it all comes down to supply and demand.  

Supply side:
The great thing about wine is that the supply side is easy to understand and it is always decreasing. It is decreasing because when you look at a wine the relevant thing to look at is a specific wine from a specific vintage. The supply of this wine will always be decreasing since there will always be bottles of the wine consumed.

Demand side:
The demand for wine is close to impossible to understand. I will start by listing what I think are the major drivers for fine wine demand:
  • Scores: What scores the major wine critics gives the specific wine in the specific vintage. The major critics are Robert Parker, Allan Meadows, Jancis Robins and Stephen Tanzer
  • The Economy: Wine is a luxury goods, and as for all goods, the demand is alway more volatile for luxury goods. It's worth mentioning that fine wine is a global market. Ecnomical growth in Asia and South America can balance out economical down turns in Europe and the US
  • Speculation: 
    • Stiglitz has a simple, but to my understanding, very accurate definition of when you have a bubble. "the basic intuition is straightforward: if the reason that the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be high tomorrow-when
      "fundamental" factors do not seem to justify such a price-then a bubble exists."
    • It is not a good time to invest in fine wine when you hear your friends, who are not experts in fine wine and the drivers behind the prices of fine wine, say that investing in wine is a good idea

Why I do not invest in wine for financial purposes:
  • I do not have enough knowledge about wine
  • I do not have enough knowledge about the economical future of Asia and South America to understand whether the growth here will outway the down turn in European and American economies
  • I do believe that there might be tendencies indicating a bubble
  • I do not have the perfect storage facility for my wines.  If you don't the wine will be worth nothing
  • Fakes: One factor that I haven't mentioned is the excistence of fake wines. The Rudy Kurniwan case is a great example of this.

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